Primary Voter Turnout on Pace to Be Lower Than 2007

As of 4 p.m., Tuesday, only 9.5 percent of eligible city voters had cast a ballot in Baltimore City’s Primary Elections.

Armstead Jones, executive director of the Baltimore City Election Board, said 30,815 voters had cast ballots. At that pace, about 14,000 fewer votes will be cast than in 2007.

Herb Smith, a professor of political science at McDaniel College, said he believes the light turnout in Tuesday’s Mayoral Democratic primary could be because Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake enjoyed such a large fundraising advantage.

He said the race attracted high-quality candidates, but they didn’t raise the money necessary to make the primary a competitive race.

“The top of the ticket tends to define turnout,” Smith said.

Matthew Crenson, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, also said a lack of a truly competitive race for mayor is playing a roll in suppressing voter turnout.

“The campaign didn’t crystallise as a rivalry between two candidates,” Crenson said.

He said the race was influenced by the fact that the mayor’s seat was never truly open.

He said Rawlings-Blake was basically a well-funded incumbent since she has served in that capacity since February 2010. Crenson also pointed out that she had the support of the state and city’s Democratic leadership.

Other reasons for low voter turnout, according to Crenson and Smith:

• Economic problems have shifted attention from local to national politics.
• The decline of voter mobilization organizations such as unions and political clubs.
• Declining newspaper coverage of local politics, especially city council races.
• The absence of a single motivating issue or a large scandal.